It
is not news that Nigeria does not produce enough electricity for her population
of over 170 million people. According to the Federal Ministry of Power, an
estimated 90 million people are without access to grid electricity in Nigeria.
The Ministry also stated that in 1999, the electric power sector had reached
the lowest point in its 100-year history with an average daily generation put
at 1,750 MW.
Fast
forward to 2016 and the story is not very different from where we are coming
from. As at mid-February 2016,
generation stood at about 3,558 MW. This
came shortly after the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) announced that
Nigeria has, for the first time in the history of her electricity generation,
generated about 5,074 megawatts (MW) of electricity on the 2nd of
February 2016.
Renewable energy (particularly
solar) has considerable potential in Nigeria, and could bridge the major energy
gaps in rural areas, particularly northern Nigeria. Major improvements in energy efficiency and
the cost of renewable-energy products have meant that the amount of capital
needed for key applications has declined dramatically. Adapting renewable
energy for water boreholes, lighting, refrigeration of medical supplies, and IT
uses for rural areas has rapidly become more affordable.
However, there is still a
need for capital investment but costs have often fallen by more than 75% in the
last five years. Key steps are still needed to link capital, market development
and reliability but growth overseas demonstrates that these are steps, which
could bring about swift changes.
Nigeria targets 13,000MW electricity
from Solar Energy
In
December 2015, the Minister of Environment, Amina Mohammed said the government has
announced plans to develop about 13,000 MW of off-grid electricity from Solar Energy. She stated that the government was working to
diversify the country’s energy mix, stressing that particular emphasis was on
renewable energy and efficient gas power.
Solar Energy Potential in Nigeria
The
Energy Commission of Nigeria predicts that Nigeria will need almost 200,000 MW
in 2030, and the question on everyone’s lips is, where will this electricity
come from?
Nigeria
has some of the highest solar energy potential in the world, especially in the
Northern region with the ability to generate up to 1800 kWh annually per KWp (kilowatt-power)
of solar installation.
The
Nigeria Insolation Map shows clearly the country’s solar energy potential. Sparse rainfall and low cloud cover translate
to high solar PV capacity factor of over 20%.
This
makes the case for solar photovoltaic (solar PV) plants strong to boost
electricity production. Global utility-scale
solar PV costs have decreased year-on-year (falling over 75% between 2010 and
2015) and this offers a unique opportunity for Nigeria, as the economic case
for investment is compelling.
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| Nigeria Insolation Map |
The Global Solar PV Trend
The global renewable energy industry has undergone
massive transformation in the last 5 years with electricity produced from solar
PV and wind energy not only becoming cost-competitive with traditional forms of
power generation (i.e. coal, natural gas and hydro), but also becoming
mainstream in a number of countries. Initially driven by an energy transition policy in Germany,
this transformation has seen emerging economies like China, India and South
Africa adding significant solar PV and wind generation capacities to their
electricity grids.
Between 2010 and 2015, total global electricity
generated from solar PV increased from 6 GW to 180 GW, while generation from
wind increased from 200 GW to 400 GW. These exponential growths are expected to
continue into the future, as renewable resources replace fossil fuelled power
generation.
Nigeria has, sadly, been virtually absent from this
transformation. By addressing the challenges and policy bottlenecks which have
hindered the growth of renewable-based power generation in Nigeria, Government will
be well placed to create the enabling environment that allows Nigeria to
leapfrog energy growth trajectories, bringing about a transformation in the way
electricity is generated and consumed.
Changes in electricity generation technologies, cost and financing
structures within the last 5 years call for the implementation of policies that
favour the fast-track growth of both small and large scale solar PV and wind to
complement natural gas and hydro generation facilities on which the national
grid is currently 100% dependent. This broadening of the electricity generation mix
would benefit from a sense of national urgency, allowing for significant
capacity additions to the grid, which in turn would spur the growth of
businesses and bring about much needed development.
Utility Scale Grid vs off-Grid Solar
There
is always the debate on whether to focus on utility scale Solar PV solutions,
which are connected to the grid, or to focus on off-grid stand-alone
solutions. In Nigeria today, the only
way the government can meet the needed expansion of the power system will be to
focus on off-grid solutions. The future of electricity lies in off-grid and
Nigeria has the assets needed for communities to become energy independent.
Investing
in min-grids will ensure that communities get the much-needed electricity
rather than have them wait for expensive grid-expansion projects. In the long term, these off-grid solutions
will be cheaper and will be used to drive a number of projects including rural
water supply, irrigation for agriculture as well as providing power for small-scale
businesses. The amount of time it takes
to deploy off-grid solutions (starting from as little as one week for kW
solutions to 6 months for MW solutions), is very little compared to the 5+
years it takes to build and commission traditional hydro and thermal power
plants.
Energy
storage has always been a major concern when it comes to off-grid solutions. Technological
and market forces have converged to make energy storage one of the most
exciting and potentially game-changing opportunities for commercial and
industrial applications, grid operators, homeowners and investors. Traditional storage solutions include Deep-Cycle
Flooded, AGM and Gel Batteries (Lead-Acid), to the more advanced batteries
including Aqueous Hybrid Ion (AHITM), Lithium-Ion (LiON) and Lithium
Sulfur (Li-S) batteries.
Recommendation – The Way Forward
One of the main thrusts of the power-sector reforms is to remove
government as an actor in the operational and much of the ownership sense,
leaving its role primarily as one of regulation.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission
(NERC) needs to formulate and implement renewable energy feed-in-tariffs that
will be honoured by the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Plc (NBET) and the various
Electricity Distribution companies affecting the signing of Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs).
The government also needs to provide tax holidays and
low interest loans for small and medium scale renewable energy schemes and
operators, custom waivers for importation of renewable energy equipment and
ensure that only high quality renewable energy products enter into the country.
The government will have to see renewable
energy as means of rural electrification as opposed to grid-connected renewable
energy.
Lastly, one cannot talk about renewable energy without focusing on
Energy Efficiency and Sustainability. The government will have to introduce a
policy framework and regulations to introduce and mandate legal energy
efficiency requirements.
Goal 7 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals SDG’s is
“Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for
all”. Nigeria as a country will have to
work at achieving the goals as set out.
The United Nations mandates that these goals are achieved by the year
2030, and they include; ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and
modern energy services; increase substantially the share of renewable energy in
the global energy mix; double the global rate of improvement in energy
efficiency; enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean
energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy efficiency
and advanced and cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in
energy infrastructure and clean energy technology; expand infrastructure and
upgrade technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all
in developing countries, in particular least developed countries, small island
developing States, and land-locked developing countries, in accordance with
their respective programmes of support
Overall, Renewable Energy solutions, especially Solar Photovoltaic will be the
future for sustainable and efficient electricity generation in
Nigeria.
